A Petri net simulation model for virtual construction of earthmoving operations

A common and extended Petri net simulation framework for virtual construction of earthmoving operations is developed to simulate dynamic changes of workflow and information flow in the earthmoving construction process and illustrate the constraint relationship between various operational equipment and construction restrictions. The proposed framework considers factors that influence earthmoving operations including randomness of construction activities, individual preference of equipment scheduling, and constraint relationship between equipment and construction environment. With the given equipment availability and project indirect cost, the framework can predict construction situation, equipment utilization rate, estimated duration and cost to achieve visualized and intelligent scheduling of virtual construction process in earthmoving operations. The simulation process is conducted on the CPNTools platform. The data required by the research were collected on-site in an actual case. The randomness of construction activities in earthmoving operations and main factors influencing construction are simulated. The sensitivity analysis for the model is carried out. The study will provide technical support and a management basis for equipment scheduling of earthmoving operations

Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970

Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production